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As the largest end market for soda ash, flat glass will be the main driver of soda ash demand growth. US housing operating rates and car sales rebounded from the low levels in 2009, stimulating demand for flat glass. Wilson pointed out: "In 2010, the domestic demand for soda ash in the United States will increase by about 3%, and in 2009 it will drop by 13%."
In addition, the world's largest soda ash market - China's demand will increase by 5% this year, stimulated by both cost growth and strong market demand, the domestic price of soda ash in China recently began to rise. Wilson said that China's new soda ash demand this year will account for 50% of the world's total.
Benefiting from rising market demand, the operating rate of US soda ash plants in 2010 is expected to remain at a high level of 95% to 100%. In the first quarter of 2009, the operating rate of US soda ash plants once fell to a historical low of 80%, mainly due to the dual impact of China's accelerated exports. Market participants said: "Since the first quarter of last year, affected by the sluggish domestic demand, Chinese producers have increased their export intensity. In March 2009, the volume of soda ash exports reached approximately 280,000 tons, which were mainly exported to Europe and Latin America." However, US soda ash producers have a large cost advantage. In the second quarter of 2009, they started to increase their exports and regained market share. China's soda ash exports also fell back to about 160,000 to 170,000 tons/month. . By the fourth quarter of 2009, the operating rate of US soda ash plants had risen to a high of 95% to 100%.
The total production capacity of the five largest soda ash producers in the United States is 14.5 million tons per year. According to the latest survey data, the output of soda ash in the United States was approximately 9.3 million tons in 2009, which was 18% lower than in 2008. Output in December 2009 was 854,000 tons, which was 3% more than in November and about 10% less than the same period of 2008.
Market participants also pointed out that in 2010, the price of large-scale soda ash in North America has been determined to be 130-140 US dollars per short ton (ex-factory price), while the contract price for small and medium-sized buyers is about 190 US dollars per short ton (ex-works price). The price level is roughly the same as in 2009.
Global Soda Industry Enters Recovery Path
Stimulated by the rebound in demand from the industrial sector, global soda ash demand is expected to rebound this year. Michael Wilson, general manager of industrial chemicals business at FMC Corporation in the United States, said on an investor conference call recently that at the beginning of the new year, global soda ash demand has entered a recovery channel. He said: “It is expected that global soda ash demand will increase by about 4% in 2010 after a 3% decline in 2009, and soda ash demand will rebound to about 48 million tons/year in 2008.â€