Nitrochlorobenzene shows high polarization

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Since September, the domestic market price of nitrochlorobenzene (including para-position and ortho-position) has hit a new high in the next year, and o-nitrochlorobenzene has set a record high in recent years. The mainstream transaction price of nitrochlorobenzene in mid-September reached 7,600 yuan (ton price, the same below), a month-on-month increase of 15%; the transaction price of o-nitrochlorobenzene reached 9,000 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5%. However, near the end of October, the market of nitrochlorobenzene diverged: o-nitrochlorobenzene once again broke the high turnover and reached 9,200 yuan, and export-level products even approached the yuan level. For nitrochlorobenzene, it fell back to about 6,900 yuan, and began to adjust up and down shocks.

At present, the downstream purchasing mentality is in contradiction, and long and short stalemate has begun. The main reasons for this round of polarization are the gaps in cost allocation, uneven consumption of hot and cold, and price reductions. As raw material prices stabilize at a high level and output gradually increases, it is expected that the nitrochlorobenzene market will release high-level adjustment risks in a way that eases polarization.

The continuous increase of raw materials cost allocation gap Since August, the domestic benzene series (including petroleum benzene, hydrogenation benzene, coking benzene) market hit a new high, petroleum benzene exceeded one million yuan in September to reach the financial crisis in 2008 The previous high price level and the high turnover lasted until October, with a continuous increase of more than 34%. Hydrogenated benzene and coked benzene are also escalated due to shortage of supply, increasing the production cost of nitrochlorobenzene. In order to balance production costs between contrapositions and neighbors, under the background that the production of o-nitrochlorobenzene is low (the ratio of the ratio between the adjacent and the neighbors is 2:1) and the rigid demand of the market is stable, the production enterprises have increased their The ex-factory price has appropriately lowered the ex-factory price of nitrochlorobenzene. After nearly a month of market operation, it basically maintained a balance between supply and demand, which played a role in subjective regulation of the market.

Seasonal factors caused downstream consumption of hot and cold inequality. Starting in September, the demand for o-nitroaniline and o-phenylenediamine as a pesticide intermediate was steadily increasing in the downstream of nitrochlorobenzene, such as pesticide companies, and another 3,3 '-The rigid demand for dichlorobenzidine products for exports of o-nitrochlorobenzene has driven higher prices further. As a result, downstream companies increased their purchases and drove the price of o-nitrochlorobenzene to record highs. At the same time, due to the downturn in the market of nitrochlorobenzene downstream dyes and other industries, consumption has declined, causing prices to drop slightly again. The unbalanced consumption of nitrochlorobenzene in the counter-position and ortho-position of nitrochlorobenzene further increased the polarization of market prices, reflecting the spontaneous adjustment of market rules in an objective way.

The low output led to an increase in the price gap between the high and low prices. This year, the domestic nitrochlorobenzene companies experienced several major start-up load adjustments, with the exception of some accidental accidents such as the explosion of chlorinated benzene devices in August 1989. Most of the reasons are raw materials. At a high level, companies are operating at the edge of losses, which has led to a continuous decline in the overall operating rate of enterprises. At the same time, the severe restriction of production of coking enterprises in the second half of the year further restricted the procurement of nitrochlorobenzene raw materials, resulting in the current domestic nitrochlorobenzene enterprises operating rate is still less than 40%. It is understood that under the background of continuous low output, speculation factors have played a significant role in the market. Among them, the increase in the price of o-nitrochlorobenzene, coupled with the tight supply, has prompted some o-nitrochlorobenzene traders or downstream manufacturers to increase warehouse activities, which has led to a decrease in the relative availability of the market, which is also the o-nitrochlorobenzene energy. One of the reasons for the high rise. At the same time, due to manufacturers lowering the price of nitrochlorobenzene, traders looked at the hollow state and aggravated, the speed of price cuts and shipments accelerated, and the price polarization increased.

The trend of polarization triggered high adjustment risk The reporter learned from major domestic manufacturers that due to the continued high market turnover in the past two months, downstream companies resisted the mentality and the purchase of large orders decreased. If the polarization of nitrochlorobenzene expands again, according to the laws of the past, it is not ruled out that the market will change suddenly. This is also the main reason why some black sulphurized companies in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong and other countries started to swing or not (most of the production shutdowns or ultra-low load starts). However, with the recent sharp decline in international crude oil prices, the tight status of pure benzene is expected to be eased. In addition, p-aminophenol and p-nitroaniline enterprises will usher in the winter consumption growth period, which will increase the demand for nitrochlorobenzene. Decline and consumption growth have become major positives in the near future. The growth rate of nitrochlorobenzene is expected to stabilize and rebound, and o-nitrochlorobenzene will relieve the tight market conditions due to the increase in production, and high-end prices will be suppressed. It is expected that the polarization trend of nitrochlorobenzene will be eased.

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